S4’s COP27 explainer for schools

One of the most important COPs was the 21^st, held in Paris in 2015. At COP21 The Parties signed the Paris Agreement which was a legally binding agreement for the Parties to work together to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. compared to pre-industrial levels. 2021 was the date set for countries to agree the emissions targets needed to achieve this.

Unfortunately, the latest Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change report concluded that we are missing the 1.5°C to 2°C target because counties have not reduced their emissions by enough, yet. The global average temperature of Earth is likely to rise by another 1.5°C over the next two decades. This would give a total temperature rise (total global warming) since preindustrial times of about 2.9°C degrees by 2100, way above the Paris agreement targets. COP26 aims to fix this and bring the likely total warming back down to meet the Paris Agreement target. One message being shared is that COP26 wants to ‘Keep 1.5 Alive’ meaning the conference aims to develop the ambitious emissions reductions promises needed to meet the most ambitious of the Paris agreement targets.

Information on the four COP26 Goals is below and here.

1. To secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5°C degrees within reach. The Parties will present emissions reductions targets that will help to bring projected warming back under 2°C Celsius by the end of the century. It is important to remember these targets are for the global average temperature. The temperature change in specific places could be higher, or lower, than this average. Here in Wales, we are likely to experience around 1.8°C of warming in total by 2050, if global emissions stay similar to now. The hope is that, at COP26, nations announce more ambitious emissions reductions targets than those presented previously. This has been termed the ‘ratcheting up’ process – whereby emissions reductions targets become more and more ambitious over time. This is a huge ask though, particularly as nations are recovering from the economic impacts of the pandemic. The window to ‘Keep 1.5 Alive’ is very narrow. In the next decade greenhouse gas emissions need to drop by as much as they rose in the last half century and, critically, after net-zero is reached in 2050 emissions then need to go negative which means removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Improved climate commitments are expected to include plans for phasing out coal, ending deforestation, switching to electric vehicles, and investing more in renewable energy.
   
   
2. To adapt to protect communities and natural habitats. COP26 also aims to reach an agreement on protecting ecosystems and helping countries impacted by climate change to build the infrastructure needed to protect people and livelihoods. This is where the second week, on nature, adaptation and science and innovation come into play. The aim will be to develop systems to protect and restore habitat and ecosystems and resilient infrastructure that protects people and livelihoods.
   
   
3. To mobilise finance. At the heart of the climate emergency is the fact that the nations who caused human-induced climate change are not the ones who will be most severely impacted by it. Climate and environmental justice are the processes by which we need to redress this inequality of impact. Part of the Paris Climate Agreement included the mobilisation of huge sums of money to support developing counties to adapt and build climate resilient infrastructure, protect nature, and develop sustainably. It is important that developing nations are supported to ‘leapfrog’ over the need for fossil-fuels and can grow sustainably using renewable energy. Unfortunately, Paris failed to agree on how this financing would work. This is likely to be one of the greatest challenges for COP26, especially coming out of a global pandemic that has had significant financial impacts across the world.  COP26 states two clear goals on finance; one on public climate finance and one on private. First, developed countries must make good on their promise to mobilise at least $100bn of public climate financing per year and second, private international financial institutions must play their part and work towards unleashing the trillions in finance required to secure global net zero greenhouse gas emissions. This is likely to be one of the hardest goals for the COP. In 2019 climate financing for vulnerable nations was just under $80 Billion, well short of the public funding target, this is partly because of a backlog of US contributions which were halted under the Trump presidency.
   
   
4. Working together to deliver. This goal is mostly about ‘finalising the Paris Agreement rule book’. Many of the best parts of the Paris Agreement were ideas that were not fixed into law and left a lot of scope for countries to avoid delivering on their climate commitments. This goal seeks to accelerate climate action through collaboration, business, and wider society. It very much aligns with the ethos of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change reports, which ask for changes at pace and scale across every sector of society.